Better days are ahead for protective coatings worldwide and for U.S.-made coatings of all types, according to two new upbeat assessments from leading industry groups.
U.S. coatings manufacturers are predicting a robust domestic and export market of nearly $24 billion by 2015, while UK researchers see sustained global recovery in protective and industrial coatings for the rest of the decade.
|Infrastructure and increasing energy demands are on the global agenda, bringing benefits for protective and other industrial coatings, according to “Global Industrial Coatings Markets 2010-2020.”|
The U.S. perspective comes from the American Coatings Association’s U.S. Paint & Coatings Industry Market Analysis: 2010-2015, just completed by The ChemQuest Group.
The global industrial outlook comes from UK’s venerable Paint Research Association, which has just released Global Industrial Coatings Markets, 2010-2020.
U.S. Paint and Coatings Industry
ACA’s optimistic report foresees “significant increases in both volume and value” over the next several years, with the U.S. domestic and export market reaching $23.6 billion in 2015.
The study profiles 21 market sectors and provides projections for the study period based in part on Census figures and interviews with industry experts.
“As the U.S. continues to emerge from the effects of the deep 2007-2009 recession, when both manufactured goods output and construction spending declined sharply, the paint and coatings market is expected to respond to improvements in both manufacturing and construction with significant increases in both volume and value,” ACA reports.
“Both increased domestic demand and favorable export opportunities will fuel the demand for increased U.S. paint and coatings production.”
Architectural coatings continue to account for the largest share of the U.S. market, notching 56% of the volume and 49% of the value in 2010, the report says. The recovering construction market, particularly in the residential sector, should spur a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.1% for value and 2.9% for volume in the architectural segment through 2015, the report forecasts.
The CAGR for OEM coatings is forecast to be 4.9% for value and 1.8% for volume, while Special Purpose finishes should see CAGRs of 3.8% for value and 1.2% for volume.
PRA Predicts Industrial Surge
PRA's report, meanwhile, drills into the industrial coatings market on a global basis and finds good news there as well. The report foresees growing strength in the protective coatings segment, which covers infrastructure; chemicals, oil & gas; and process industries. Infrastructure makes up about 40 percent of that market; oil and gas, 35 percent, the report says.
|The global downturn spared protective coatings in the oil and gas sector, as suppliers and facility owners remained committed to regular asset maintenance, including painting.|
Infrastructure-related demand will be strong throughout the decade, driven by aging systems and structures in the United States, Olympics- and World Cup-related construction in Brazil, modernizing efforts in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, and new construction throughout China and India, PRA reports.
Government stimulus plans and economic policies, developed in the wake of the 2008-09 downturn, will help meet this demand, the report says.
Drivers and Trends
Other growth drivers throughout the decade include:
• Rising global prices for oil, gas, metals and other major commodities. “High prices drive investment in exploration and production, and revenue generated allows the commodity-producing countries to invest in infrastructure,” the report says;
• Increasing harmonization of global regulatory requirements and regional legislation; and
• Service life performance requirements and quality and environmental demands imposed on corrosion protection.
The report also notes that protective coating formulations are growing greener, with waterborne technology now making up 15 percent of the market. Powder coatings comprise 4 percent of the market.
Solventborne coatings still account for 81 percent of the market—36 percent medium solids and 45 percent high solids.
The report also details coatings by application (eg, bridges, oil refineries) and a wide variety of segments, including packaging, industrial wood coatings, powder coatings, pre-coated metal sheets, equipment, agriculture and plastics. Among the highlights:
Automotive coatings demand (both original and refinish) will surge with rebounding global auto production, but most of that benefit will be felt outside the United States, PRA reports. After declining in 2008 and 2009, worldwide vehicle production increased by more than 25 percent in 2010, to more than 72 million vehicles.
China has now overtaken Japan and the U.S. to become the largest single-country producer of automotive vehicles, according to PRA. Asia Pacific now produces more than 45 percent of the world’s vehicles; Western Europe is second, with about 25 percent.
In 2009, North America produced just under15 percent of the world’s vehicles.
Although new build demand helped spur a 7 percent increase in demand for rail coatings in 2010, to about $600 million US, rail investment for the rest of the decade is expected to vary widely from country to country. Russia and the United States need to replace aging freight cars that have been in operation for nearly 30 years, for example, while India has big plans to modernize its rolling stock, the report says.
Aircraft coatings will continue to play an enormous role in fuel efficiency, making competition fierce. Study authors note that Boeing’s decision to use just one color, instead of two, on its new 787 Dreamliner could save as much as 22,000 gallons of fuel per year. Demand for coatings across all aircraft segments will remain strong, the report projects.
Despite recent declines in the shipbuilding industry, demand for marine coatings has remained steady, due to the length of time required to build and vessel and to changing regulations for ballast tank coatings. Global commercial shipbuilding coatings demand experienced a 14 percent in 2009, the report said. That included an estimated 6% growth in new build coatings demand.